the.com/margin of error
The pollster's way of saying this number is basically a shrug with decimal points.
means The range above or below a reported figure within which the true value probably falls, given the quirks of sampling.
from Built from 'margin' (Latin margo, an edge or border) and 'error' (Latin errare, to wander or stray) — so literally the edge-space you leave for wandering. The statistical sense sharpened in the 20th century as sampling theory and polling matured, giving pollsters a formal cushion for the gap between a sample's answer and the truth no one can fully measure.
- plus or minus
- means the true number could be elsewhere entirely
- sample size
- bigger samples shrink it, never eliminate it
- confidence level
- usually hides a quiet 95 percent, not certainty
- election polls
- two candidates within it means it is a toss-up