the.com/striking distance

Close enough that failing now would be unforgivable, not unlikely.

means Near enough to a goal or target that success is realistically within reach — one more push should do it.

from Literal before it was figurative: a 'striking distance' was originally the range within which a blow, a weapon, or an attacking force could actually hit its target — military and boxing language from the 1800s about being close enough to land the hit. Over time it drifted from fists and cannons to deadlines and scoreboards, keeping the same bite: you're close enough that the outcome is now yours to lose.

origin
boxing and naval gunnery, not metaphor first
psychology
near-misses motivate harder than far-misses
misuse
often claimed long before it's true
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