the.com/scenario
A plausible story about the future, built so you can rehearse being wrong safely.
means A described sequence of events or circumstances, often hypothetical, used to plan for or analyze a possible situation.
from Borrowed from Italian 'scenario,' meaning the sketch of a theatrical plot or stage setting — itself from Latin 'scena,' meaning stage or scene, which traces back to Greek 'skēnē,' the tent or backdrop actors performed in front of. The word carried its theatrical sense into English, where it originally meant a stage outline before drifting into its modern use for an imagined sequence of events — we're still writing little plays, just for the future instead of the stage.
- origin
- from italian theater sketch outlines, not spreadsheets
- not prediction
- it maps possibilities, never claims to know winners
- best use
- stress-tests decisions before reality bills you
- failure mode
- people fall in love with one and ignore others