the.com/overestimation

Confusing confidence with accuracy, usually right before the bill arrives.

means Judging something — often your own skill, time, or money — to be greater than it actually is.

from Straightforward Latin carpentry: 'over-' (beyond, too much) bolted onto 'estimate,' from Latin 'aestimare,' meaning to appraise or set a value on something. The 'over-' prefix has been English's favorite way to signal excess since Old English times; pair it with a word about judging value and you get a tidy label for the gap between what you guessed and what's actually true.

project timelines
universally off by at least double
driving skill
93 percent rate themselves above average
cure
outside view beats inside optimism every time
cousin bias
Dunning-Kruger thrives on partial knowledge
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