the.com/overestimation
Confusing confidence with accuracy, usually right before the bill arrives.
means Judging something — often your own skill, time, or money — to be greater than it actually is.
from Straightforward Latin carpentry: 'over-' (beyond, too much) bolted onto 'estimate,' from Latin 'aestimare,' meaning to appraise or set a value on something. The 'over-' prefix has been English's favorite way to signal excess since Old English times; pair it with a word about judging value and you get a tidy label for the gap between what you guessed and what's actually true.
- project timelines
- universally off by at least double
- driving skill
- 93 percent rate themselves above average
- cure
- outside view beats inside optimism every time
- cousin bias
- Dunning-Kruger thrives on partial knowledge