the.com/bayesian
belief is a number, and new evidence just sent you an invoice.
means an approach to probability where you start with a prior belief and update it as evidence arrives, instead of pretending you knew nothing.
from named after thomas bayes, an 18th-century english minister whose theorem on conditional probability was published posthumously in 1763 by a friend who found it in his papers.
published posthumouslybayes never saw his own theorem in print
ai backbonepowers spam filters and medical diagnostics daily
laplace revived itpierre-simon laplace independently rediscovered and named it
rival campfrequentists still argue this is philosophically wrong
for instance
spam filters — gmail updates probability a word means junk mail
fivethirtyeight elections — nate silver updates win odds as polls arrive
medical testing — doctors revise disease odds after a positive result